{"id":22092,"date":"2025-01-26T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-26T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/?p=22092"},"modified":"2025-01-26T11:44:31","modified_gmt":"2025-01-26T17:44:31","slug":"ai-investments-volatility-futures-and-crypto-blockchain-updates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/blog\/ai-investments-volatility-futures-and-crypto-blockchain-updates\/","title":{"rendered":"AI Investments, Volatility Futures, and Crypto &#038; Blockchain Updates"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023.png\"><br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-19008 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023-1024x223.png\" alt=\"TopstepTV banner 113023\" width=\"1024\" height=\"223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023-1024x223.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023-300x65.png 300w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023-768x167.png 768w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023-1536x335.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/TopstepTV-banner-113023-2048x446.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/h2>\n<h2>Top things to watch this week<\/h2>\n<p><u><strong>The Economic Calendar:<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n<p><strong>MONDAY:<\/strong> Building Permits (7:00a CT), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (7:30a CT), New Home Sales (9:00a CT), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (9:30a CT), 2-Year Note Auction (10:30a CT), 5-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>TUESDAY: <\/strong>Durable Goods (7:30a CT), Redbook (7:55a CT), House Price Index (8:00a CT), Consumer Confidence (9:00a CT), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (9:00a CT), Dallas Fed Services Index (9:30a CT), 7-Year Note Auction (12:00p CT), Money Supply (12:00p CT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>WEDNESDAY:\u00a0<\/strong> MBA Mortgage Applications(6:00a CT), Goods Trade Balance (7:30a CT), Retail Inventories (7:30a CT), Wholesale Inventories (7:30a CT), EIA Petroleum Status Report (9:30a CT), FOMC Announcement (1:00p CT), Fed Chairman Press Conference (1:30p CT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>THURSDAY:<\/strong> Jobless Claims (7:30a CT), U.S GDP (7:30a CT), Real Consumer Spending (7:30a CT), Pending Home Sales (9:00a CT), EIA Natural Gas Report (9:30a CT), Fed Balance Sheet (3:30p CT)<\/p>\n<p><strong>FRIDAY:<\/strong> Core PCE (7:30a CT), Fed Bowman Speech (7:30a CT), Employment Cost Index (7:30a CT), Chicago PMI (8:45a CT), Baker Hughes Rig Count (12:00p CT)<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><b>Key Events:<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trader focuses on monetary policy, with the Fed\u2019s first rate decision of the year.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Expect no change to interest rates this Wednesday.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">All eyes are on Trump\u2019s tariff negotiations (expected before February 1).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notable economic reports on Durable Goods, PCE, FOMC decision, and GDP.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Fed\u2019s favorite inflation indicator is the PCE report on Friday.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Global Central Banks &#8211; The Federal Reserve will be on hold and the ECB, the BoC, <\/span>and the Riksbank are set to cut rates.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Earnings reports from TSLA, META, AAPL, MSFT, INTC, MA, XOM, LUV, IBM, BA.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\"><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>STOCK INDEX FUTURES<\/h2>\n<p>Positive developments have contributed to a significant rally in the stock market, with the S&amp;P 500 and other major indices looking toward new highs.<\/p>\n<p>The stock market experienced an intense week, with major indices posting gains driven by positive earnings reports and encouraging economic data.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strong Earnings Season: Key financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, reported better-than-expected earnings, boosting investor confidence.<\/li>\n<li>Positive Economic Data: The release of strong economic data, including a better-than-expected jobs report, further fueled market optimism.<\/li>\n<li>AI-Fueled Growth: The advancements in artificial intelligence continue to fuel investor enthusiasm, particularly within the technology sector.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Looking ahead, the focus now turns to monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve&#8217;s first interest rate decision of the year scheduled for this Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>We are also closely watching the tape for news on tariffs from President Trump. He refrained from immediately announcing tariffs after his inauguration, though he said Canada and Mexico could be targeted as soon as February.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>VOLATILITY INDEX FUTURES<\/h2>\n<p>Markets seem untouchable at the moment, but VIX seasonality is strong from here. Nobody we speak to talks about hedges these days, which is usually a good time to start leaning into some cheap put protection.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_22093\" style=\"width: 522px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/VIX-Chart-01-26-2025.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22093\" class=\"wp-image-22093 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/VIX-Chart-01-26-2025.png\" alt=\"VIX Chart 01-26-2025\" width=\"512\" height=\"251\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/VIX-Chart-01-26-2025.png 512w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/VIX-Chart-01-26-2025-300x147.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-22093\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: TradingView<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>INTEREST RATE FUTURES<\/h2>\n<p>The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, scheduled for this Wednesday, is drawing significant attention due to recent economic indicators and political developments.<\/p>\n<p>Jawboning has begun by President Trump to try to influence the interest rate level. Last Thursday, he said he wanted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates when the central bank hit pause for an uncertain duration. He argued that he understood monetary policy better than those charged with setting it.<\/p>\n<p>At a White House event following those comments, Trump said, &#8220;I think I know interest rates much better than they do, and I think I know it certainly much better than the one who&#8217;s primarily in charge of making that decision&#8221; in an apparent reference to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who Trump appointed as Fed leader in his first stint as president.<\/p>\n<h5>Expectations for the Wednesday Meeting:<\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>No Rate Cut Expected:<\/strong> All 103 economists surveyed in a recent Reuters poll predicted that the FOMC would maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% at this meeting. This expectation is driven by ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, particularly with the new Trump administration&#8217;s potential policy shifts.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market Adjustments:<\/strong> Interest rate futures have adjusted to reflect expectations of just one Fed rate cut in 2025, with the possibility of another cut being uncertain, a shift from earlier forecasts, which expected at least three cuts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>CRUDE OIL FUTURES<\/h2>\n<p>The market is reacting to Trump&#8217;s policies to make &#8220;U.S. oil and gas great again.&#8221; This includes expectations of increased domestic production, which might lower prices if supply significantly outpaces demand.<\/p>\n<p>However, the immediate market response included a sell-off, likely due to the uncertainty and short-term implications of policy shifts, including potential tariff threats.<\/p>\n<p>Trump has postponed the imposition of tariffs on Canadian oil until at least February 2nd, giving Canada and Mexico a few days to negotiate. This delay has reduced some of the oil tariff premiums in the short term, although the long-term intention is to lower energy costs. However, any tariffs on Canadian oil could paradoxically increase costs in the short term due to the U.S.&#8217;s reliance on this import for refining.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_22094\" style=\"width: 522px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Crude-Chart-01-26-2025.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22094\" class=\"wp-image-22094 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Crude-Chart-01-26-2025.png\" alt=\"Crude Chart 01-26-2025\" width=\"512\" height=\"250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Crude-Chart-01-26-2025.png 512w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Crude-Chart-01-26-2025-300x146.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-22094\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: TradingView<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>AI INVESTMENT STILL HOT THEME<\/h2>\n<p>The AI Boom is not over\u2026<\/p>\n<p>President Donald Trump announced a significant AI infrastructure project, Stargate, involving a coalition of tech giants, including SoftBank, OpenAI, and Oracle. The initiative promises an initial investment of $100 billion and a total commitment of up to $500 billion over four years. It aims to build AI data centers in the U.S., starting with Texas, to create 100,000 jobs &#8220;almost immediately.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The announcement was made during a press conference alongside key figures like Sam Altman of OpenAI, Larry Ellison of Oracle, and Masayoshi Son of SoftBank. The announcement highlighted its scale as &#8220;the largest AI infrastructure project in history.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Elon Musk and many on social media criticized the project&#8217;s effort. Elon Musk has openly criticized the Stargate project, particularly questioning the financial backing behind the commitments. On his social media platform, X, he stated that the companies involved &#8220;don&#8217;t actually have the money,&#8221; specifically calling out SoftBank for only having &#8220;well under $10B secured&#8221; for the initiative.<\/p>\n<p>This skepticism directly challenges the credibility of the project&#8217;s funding and the announcements made by Trump and the involved companies. Musk also has a riff with Sam Altman and OpenAI.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_22095\" style=\"width: 362px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Gavin-Baker-Tweet-01-26-2025.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22095\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22095\" src=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Gavin-Baker-Tweet-01-26-2025.png\" alt=\"Gavin Baker Tweet 01-26-2025\" width=\"352\" height=\"512\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Gavin-Baker-Tweet-01-26-2025.png 352w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Gavin-Baker-Tweet-01-26-2025-206x300.png 206w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 352px) 100vw, 352px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-22095\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: X.com<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>JAPANESE YEN FUTURES<\/h2>\n<p>The BOJ hiked. JPY futures barely noticed.<\/p>\n<p>The Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently made a significant policy shift by raising its key policy rate to its highest level in 17 years. This move marks a departure from the era of unconventional monetary policy that has characterized the Japanese economy for many years.<\/p>\n<p>For decades, Japan has grappled with weak prices and economic stagnation. While inflation has increased globally in recent years, the BOJ largely attributed domestic price pressures to imported inflation. However, with robust wage growth and signs of a more sustainable economic recovery, the central bank has gained confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target.<\/p>\n<p>The BOJ has signaled its intention to continue raising interest rates gradually towards a neutral level, which neither stimulates nor cools the economy. This gradual tightening of monetary policy ensures stable and sustainable economic growth.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_22096\" style=\"width: 522px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Yen-Chart-01-26-2025.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22096\" class=\"wp-image-22096 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Yen-Chart-01-26-2025.png\" alt=\"Yen Chart 01-26-2025\" width=\"512\" height=\"251\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Yen-Chart-01-26-2025.png 512w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Yen-Chart-01-26-2025-300x147.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-22096\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: TradingView<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>CRYPTO FUTURES &amp; BLOCKCHAIN<\/h2>\n<p>We are watching a significant inflection point in crypto and blockchain.<\/p>\n<p>Recent actions paint a picture of Bitcoin transitioning from a potential threat to a recognized asset class with governmental support, addressing past concerns about regulation, privacy, and the sustainability of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. financial system.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin hit a new all-time high last week of $109,000. The fact this new record occurred on the same day that President Trump was sworn into office, while Wall Street\u2019s market was closed, is about as poetic as it gets.<\/p>\n<p>President Trump signed an executive order to establish a favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies. This is described as the most comprehensive plan to date for the industry.<\/p>\n<p>The order establishes the &#8220;Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets,&#8221; led by David Sacks (White House AI &amp; Crypto Czar), with key figures from the Treasury and SEC. The group&#8217;s mandate includes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Developing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, including stablecoins.<\/li>\n<li>Evaluating the potential for a strategic national digital assets stockpile, possibly focusing on Bitcoin.<\/li>\n<li>Regulatory and policy changes. The order directs agencies to review and potentially modify or rescind regulations that negatively impact the digital asset sector.<\/li>\n<li>It explicitly prohibits the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), addressing privacy and surveillance concerns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Looking ahead, the Ross Ulbricht pardon, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lumis&#8217;s involvement, SEC Commissioner Gensler\u2019s exit, the acceleration of the blockchain peleton, and the high probability of a Bitcoin reserve are all huge game changers and a key inflection point.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/JP-Richardson-Tweet-01-26-2025.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-22097 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/JP-Richardson-Tweet-01-26-2025.png\" alt=\"JP Richardson Tweet 01-26-2025\" width=\"512\" height=\"242\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/JP-Richardson-Tweet-01-26-2025.png 512w, https:\/\/www.Topstepquantumhub.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/JP-Richardson-Tweet-01-26-2025-300x142.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>U.S. DOLLAR FOREX FUTURES<\/h2>\n<p>Since the inauguration, U.S. Dollar futures have experienced a significant downturn.<\/p>\n<p>The Dollar is on track for its worst weekly performance since November 2023, indicating a capitulation in the foreign exchange market following the initial expectations set by the inauguration day announcements.<\/p>\n<p>The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) had been trending towards highs last seen in 2022 before the inauguration, but it has since retreated from those levels. Anecdotal evidence suggests that around two-thirds of long USD positions might have been unwound, reflecting a shift in market sentiment. Despite this, there is an expectation that the USD will stabilize and hold its ground soon.<\/p>\n<p>We still expect USD to hold in. Although President Trump\u2019s softer tone on tariffs has helped to halt the DXY rally, we still believe it is too early to push tariff risks aside, as proper foreign trade negotiations have yet to commence.<\/p>\n<p>The announcement and implementation of tariffs can have complex effects on the U.S. dollar, and the immediate reaction expected is \u201c<em><strong>Strengthening of the Dollar.<\/strong><\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h6>All content published and distributed by Topstep LLC and its affiliates (collectively, the \u201cCompany\u201d) should be treated as general information only. None of the information provided by the Company or contained herein is intended as (a) investment advice, (b) an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or (c) a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, Company, or fund. Testimonials appearing on the Company\u2019s websites may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success. Use of the information contained on the Company\u2019s websites is at your own risk and the Company, and its partners, representatives, agents, employees, and contractors assume no responsibility or liability for any use or misuse of such information.<\/h6>\n<h6>Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the investor\u2019s initial investment. Only risk capital\u2014money that can be lost without jeopardizing one\u2019s financial security or lifestyle\u2014should be used for trading, and only those individuals with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell futures, options, or forex. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.<\/h6>\n<h6>CFTC Rule 4.41 \u2013 Hypothetical or Simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, because the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs, in general, are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.<\/h6>\n<p><!-- TradingView Widget END --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Top things to watch this week The Economic Calendar: MONDAY: Building Permits (7:00a CT), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (7:30a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[274,272,271],"tags":[862,856,265,454,700,295,620,810,624,298],"class_list":["post-22092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-news","category-trading-for-beginners","category-trading-strategies","tag-bitcoin-futures","tag-commodity-futures","tag-day-trading","tag-economic-calendar","tag-energy-futures","tag-futures-trading","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rate-futures","tag-stock-index-futures","tag-technical-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.3 (Yoast SEO v24.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>AI Investments, Volatility Futures, and Crypto &amp; 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